Comparison of Methodologies for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting*

Geostatistical Model Averaging for Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

Accurate weather forecasts benefit society in crucial functions, including agriculture, transportation, recreation, and basic human and infrastructural safety. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction models have been developed, in which multiple estimates of the current state of the atmosphere are used to generate probabilistic forecasts for future weather events. H...

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using a Two-Stage Spatial Model

Short-range forecasts of precipitation fields are required in a wealth of agricultural, hydrological, ecological and other applications. Forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are often biased and do not provide uncertainty information. Here we present a postprocessing technique for such numerical forecasts that produces correlated probabilistic forecasts of precipitation accumulati...

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical way of postprocessing forecast ensembles to create predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. It represents the predictive PDF as a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts, where the weights are posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts and reflect the forecasts...

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Field Forecasting Using a Two-stage Spatial Model1 by Veronica

Short-range forecasts of precipitation fields are needed in a wealth of agricultural, hydrological, ecological and other applications. Forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are often biased and do not provide uncertainty information. Here we present a postprocessing technique for such numerical forecasts that produces correlated probabilistic forecasts of precipitation accumulation...

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting by the Japan Meteorological Agency